2024 Presidential Election: What Matters Now
What If This Election Isn't About What We Thought?
In 2020, Joe Biden suggested that the election was a battle for the soul of the nation. He was partially right. He framed the decision as between his traditional American vision of the United States as a Constitutional Democratic Republic vs. a chaotic narcissistic mess with tendencies toward autocracy. Biden narrowly won that election in some key states that gave him the electoral college victory but overwhelmed Trump in the popular vote, garnering over seven million more votes.
Many see 2024 as a repeat except that the risk to the country is far greater than it was four years ago. The media focus, especially from mainstream sources, is on Biden as a competent, “normal”, but old, President with an impressive record of legislative achievements against a backward-looking, vengeful, wannabe dictator who has completely captured the hearts and minds of what remains of the Republican Party. If you missed my article on that takeover, you can catch up and read it here.
What if the issues and key questions of the election are seen entirely differently by those who favor the disgraced, indicted, adjudicated rapist former President? What playing field would we be playing on if we saw things as the contest that these people see?
Character: Does it Matter?
Americans have always answered yes, until 2016 when the Access Hollywood man bragged about sexual assault and millions of Americans shrugged, including many of our church-going neighbors. Some parents who were once concerned about the example set by the President of the United States have decided to look elsewhere for role models. Trumpism stands for pettiness, vengeance, misogyny, racism, homophobia, and any other phobia you can name. Worse still is that the same things and worse are attributed to Joe Biden and all Democrats every day. The goal is to convince Americans that there is no such thing as a politician with good character. Therefore, character doesn’t matter.
Getting Things Done: Does it Matter?
President Biden was a respected US Senator for decades before he joined the Obama Administration and served two terms as Vice President. He is a family man who honed his political skills in the pursuit of bi-partisan legislation to address problems. Every piece of legislation from the most progressive to the most draconian is a compromise. To those on the right, compromise is now seen as weak, rather than necessary. Biden’s legislative skills and respect for institutions get him zero points from a near-majority of the electorate. Why? There are three reasons. 1) The media consumed by these citizens lies to them and frames everything done by a Democratic President as an act of war against them; 2) Certain key issues such as immigration and everyday prices look to be unaddressed problems; 3) Like Trump himself, they believe that legal issues facing the former President are strictly political, meaning that the real achievement of the Biden team has been to weaponize the Department of Justice.
Getting certain things done matters. MAGA Americans have given up on a checks and balances, compromise approach to governing. They want Trump to just deport those people and do whatever else he thinks is best. There is no thought given to “then what?” when the service at the local Pizza Hut and Costco gets so bad that it’s not worth going anymore. The project to upgrade the playground at the elementary school is delayed for another year. Don’t even think about getting your house painted this summer.
Criminal Behavior or Indictments: Do They Matter?
To Biden voters, they do. To MAGA voters, the crime that matters is the unindicted crime of disrespecting them by mainstream politicians. They see Trump as their guy, despite all evidence to the contrary. When the jury gets the case in the Manhattan hush money, election interference trial this week, the country will enter into yet another unprecedented zone; awaiting a verdict in the trial of a former President.
Reading and listening to some conservative sources reveals two narratives that are being pushed hard into the minds of MAGA voters. First, this entire prosecution was created by Joe Biden from his basement as a means to silence Trump. That narrative has been valuable to the presumptive nominee during the trial but is about to reach the end of its usefulness. Regardless of the outcome, the Trump campaign will be out of court and free to do whatever campaigning it chooses. The second narrative is the one I expect to hear in the closing argument on Tuesday. This argument states that there was no underlying crime in the form of election interference. After all, Trump thinks he can shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes. Why try to hide Stormy Daniels when murder itself would be ignored by the voters? Alleged paperwork miscues don’t matter and would not impact Trump’s electoral chances. Finally, there is no way that Donald Trump “ caused” false records to be created if that’s what they were. Only Michael Cohen said that and he’s a liar.
Even if there is a conviction on a few counts, Trump will appeal and loudly proclaim that the initial trial was rigged, just like the last election. I have no reason to think that his pals and supporters will reject that argument this time. What we don’t know is whether earlier primary voters who said a conviction would make a difference will stick with that thinking should it come to that.
A Change Election: Does That Matter?
Barack Obama ran a disciplined, professional, no-drama campaign for President on the premise of hope and change in 2008. That was sixteen years ago and many voters are ready for another change-oriented election. Biden represents a status quo that millions think is not working for them. His mantra of, “finishing the job” means more Congressional dysfunction and compromise for those voters. “What we really need,” think many voters, “is a wrecking ball to get the bureaucracy out of the damned way!” Put another way, maybe a dictator wouldn’t be so bad?
Does that mean that millions of our fellow citizens are really ready to scrap democracy for a strong-man authoritarian? No, but it doesn’t matter that they aren’t really ready, they are going to vote as if they are. If asked, we might hear, “He won’t really be a dictator, he’s just going to cut through the red tape and take action that we all know is necessary.“
Voting Rights: Do They Matter?
A recent article discussed the memories of Americans regarding how Donald Trump handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Those surveyed did not die from COVID. They didn’t focus much on the one million Americans who did either. They complained about the economic hardship created, in their memories, by Democrats who followed the science to keep people safe.
Voting rights is a similar issue in America. If I’m able to vote and the people in my circle can vote without too much trouble, I’m fine. Keeping other people from voting doesn’t affect me, and doesn’t bother me. Because I believe that the 2020 election was stolen from my team, of course I support laws to make that harder this time around. As an issue, Democrats and Republicans are simply not arguing this one.
Reproductive Rights: Do They Matter?
One issue, this one, might save Democrats this fall. In state after state since the reversal of Roe, voters have answered this single question with a resounding Yes! Even most Republicans want women to have medical rights without big government involvement. Although most conservative principles have been abandoned in the Trump era, the idea that the government makes arbitrary health care decisions strikes most Americans as fundamentally wrong-headed.
There is a problem with communicating to some voters. These voters think that it is Biden, not Trump, who is responsible for the Dobbs decision. In the category of having too many things to worry about, I am going to leave it to the well-organized existing groups to fill that educational gap before November.
In state after state, when abortion access is on the ballot, it increases turnout and consistently wins. Furthermore, this issue is still energizing the electorate, especially for women. Reproductive Freedom is becoming a more and more common expression for this topic than simply, “abortion.” Freedom is positive. Abortion is controversial. Freedom sounds so obviously right.
Democracy: Does it Matter?
In 2020, the Biden campaign pinned its hopes on this. In 2024, it’s dicey. Millions of Americans believe that this is the single biggest issue ever facing an electorate in the most consequential election since FDR defeated Herbert Hoover. Recent polling suggests that, for millions of others, maintaining our democracy is not only a reason to vote for Biden, but a reason not to. The combination of poor (or no) civics education and personal frustration with something in life has led many to believe that our government as it exists today simply does not work for them. Trump’s con has worked to perfection. Crude, crass, hate-filled rants that piss off the people they despise are greeted with whoops and hollers.
The same voices who traditionally said that they want government to do as little as possible all of a sudden have a long wish-list for Uncle Sam, or Führer Sam as the case may be. Deport millions. Tax imports (raising inflation in the process). Initiate loyalty tests for government service. Ignore or find ways around the Constitution. All of these are now perfectly fine with our former small government-advocating friends.
So, What Matters?
For Democrats and many Independents, each of the issues addressed above could be the one to determine their vote for President in November. But for other voters and potential voters, the scorecard looks very different.
Character doesn’t matter enough to matter.
Getting things done matters but not the way we have been doing it — or not doing it — in our three-branch government.
Criminal behavior and convictions don’t universally matter anymore.
Change matters to many voters. Those on the right want big change, not marginal change, and they seem unwilling to think through what could come next.
Voting rights matter to progressives but the people whose rights are being disputed are sometimes hard to turn out to vote.
Democracy wins some votes, but loses others. We have gone that far.
For the first time, Americans might not be who we have claimed to be for the last 250 years. The rule of law isn’t sacred across the board. The right to vote itself could be in jeopardy. Millions seem willing, even eager, to move away from democracy.
What Matters Most?
Get out our vote. All of us should find an opportunity to be part of the largest, most sophisticated GOTV operation in American history. Our voters are an eclectic group, motivated by a variety of issues. Every issue above and more will motivate select voters to turn out. Get involved. Encourage other like-minded friends to do the same. We all need each other.
Well done. Excellent analysis of what matters. Logic is not even mentioned. It doesn't matter at all. I wish it did. I wish character mattered- it doesn't. Unfortunately my experience with the electorate is that they are pretty selfish. All that matters is how they are doing financially (or perceive they are doing) . There are one issue voters (ie pro-life, pro-choice, enviorn, guns) but all together they make up less than 30-40 % of the electorate. The vast majority of electorate are folks just rying to get to the next day and pay their bills and are too busy and overwhelmed intellectually and emotionally to care about who is going to be president. Trump and the R's do a good job of activating their fears and greed- which is powerful enough to get people to vote for them. D's are too caring and don't do a good job of selling accomplishments and success.
I'm doing all I can but I fear the worst for this upcoming election.